Feather River Park, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

463
FXUS65 KREV 050758
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1258 AM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Shower and thunderstorm chances continue each afternoon through
  Friday in the Sierra mainly south of Tahoe through Mono County.

* Slightly above average temperatures through Thursday will be
  followed by a warmup with increasing HeatRisk this weekend and
  early next week.

* Thunderstorm chances and coverage may increase this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Our warming trend has commenced and we`ll continue to warm up
each day into the weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
continue along the eastern Sierra from Lake Tahoe down through
Mono County each afternoon through at least Friday. The SPC has
the Sierra crest from Truckee southward under general
thunderstorms today through Saturday. Additionally, our zephyr
breezes will be back each afternoon through mid-next week.

Our upper level pattern today through Friday consists of a couple
weak shortwave troughs which are setting the stage for the
convection along the Sierra. SBCAPE values today through Friday
will range between 500-600 J/kg, right around the lower end of
what`s typical around here in the summertime. The shower and
lightning chances are roughly the same each afternoon with around
a <40% chance. In southern Mineral County there`s a 10-15% chance
for a stray shower with similar chances for lightning through
Friday. DCAPE looks to be around 700-900 J/kg, so expect outflow
gusts around these storms to get up to 35-45 mph. Again, the main
impacts from these thunderstorms today through Friday include
gusty outflow winds, small hail less than 0.25" in diameter,
occasional lightning, and heavy downpours.

Starting Saturday, a cut-off low off the coast will stall out and
sit offshore, increasing chances for thunderstorms along the
Sierra crest from northeast CA down to Mono County. There is still
a lot of variability in the models for storm coverage this
weekend due to different solutions of where that low is going to
track. The GFS and EC diverge around Sunday, though Saturday there
is still some uncertainty in where the showers will be, if any.
But what is certain this weekend are the temperatures. Keep your
sunglasses, water bottles, and hats handy because western NV is
looking to rise into the mid-90`s and in the Sierra the low 80`s
Saturday-Tuesday. This weekend through early next week there will
be widespread Moderate heatRisk with small pockets of Major
HeatRisk across western NV.

-Justin

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light and mainly from the west today, with gusts
15-20 kt at all area terminals in the afternoon. There`s a 30-40%
chance for showers and thunderstorms near KMMH this afternoon
between 20Z-02Z. KMMH may see erratic gusts around the
thunderstorms up to 30 kt. Primary impacts from thunderstorms
include gusty/erratic winds, small hail <0.25", and occasional
lightning.

KTRK may see brief IFR/LIFR conditions with patchy early AM fog
mainly between 11-14Z for the next couple of mornings, and a bit
of haze due to recent nearby controlled burns. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at the Tahoe area and far western NV
terminals through Friday, with less than 10% chance for
thunderstorms for KTRK and KTVL. MJD/Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$